A last-minute visit from the Premier and a concerted campaign on gun control did not stop the National party from facing a major voter backlash in its heartland as it appeared set to scrape home in two by-elections on Saturday.
Voters in three NSW seats went to the polls on Saturday in by-elections caused by the retirement of local MPs, including in the Nationals electorates of Cootamundra and Murray in the state's south-west. Both seats were resting on two-party preferred margins of 20 per cent or more.
But with nearly half of votes counted on Saturday night, the Nationals registered a near-20 point drop in its first preference vote in Cootamundra.
In Murray the first-preference swing against the party was more than 14 points, but the first preference vote of its main rival, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, was ten points higher than in Cootamundra at 33 per cent.
ABC election analyst Antony Green said he projected Nationals candidates Steph Cooke (Cootamundra) and Austin Evans (Murray) to claim the seats.
But Mr Green said the result was a reflection of the general challenges facing the Nationals from parties on the right of politics: "This result reflects the pressure the Nationals are under in safe seats
I think the Shooters have dangerous policies," she told the local Fairfax press. "Those policies are not in tandem with what the community thinks."
But the SFF's candidate in Murray, Helen Dalton, described the Nationals' focus on firearms policy as a "cheap shot" that was not relevant to a by-election she said was about infrastructure and other local issues. (Ms Dalton also said she was not familiar with the details of her party's gun control policy.)
Election-day corflutes warned voters against voting for the Shooters and the risk of "US-style gun laws", while there were allegations the Nationals were also suppressing voters' declaration of preferences
Former Prime Minister John Howard and his former Nationals deputy Tim Fischer wrote an open letter to voters discouraging voting for a party they said would seek to weaken gun control.
A Labor spokesman said that under Ms Berejiklian's government, the safe Nationals seat of Murray had become marginal.
But Ms Berejiklian denied her visit to Murray was a sign the government was worried.
"There is no such thing as a safe seat anymore," she said. "The Deputy Premier and I don't take anything for granted".
The last by-election for the Nationals saw them lose the seat of Orange last November, with a record 34 per cent drop in the party's first preference vote; a result that precipitated a change in its leadership.
The state director of the National party declined to comment.
But the party's Leader and NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro this week denied any backlash would be a serious indictment on his leadership.
"By-elections are all protest votes; we all accept that," he said.
Mr Barilaro had earlier told a News Limited newspaper that a mass shooting by-election in Las Vegas could prove to be a determinative moment in the by-election.
The by-elections were prompted by the resignation of two long-serving MPs and former Ministers Katrina Hodgkinson(Cootamundra) and Adrian Piccoli (Murray).
A by-election was also held in Blacktown on Saturday after former Labor leader John Robertson resigned from politics.
The government did not field a candidate for the seat and Labor claimed victory within an hour of polls closing for Mayor Stephen Bali, who the party said will achieve a swing of more than 15 points.
Between 1988 and 2016 the average loss of first preference vote by governments at by-elections is 9 per cent.
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